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The Middle East in Transition: Repression, Discontent and the Role of Football (JMD on movements@man

The Middle East in Transition: Repression, Discontent and the Role of Football


An interview with James M. Dorsey, Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam

School of International Studies of Nanyang Technological University

in Singapore and co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture in

Würzburg/Germany. He is also an award-winning journalist, working

among others on the Middle East since the mid 1970s. His monograph

Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer was published

with Hurst Publishers in 2014 [1].


In this interview, Dorsey discusses the fundamental developments in the

Middle East over the recent years arguing that despite the repressive reactions

of the governments towards political dissent, a radical shift in status quo is

underway. He describes the economic and social factors which continue to

nourish discontent in various countries in the Middle East, and explains,

focusing on the case of Eygpt, why football has played such a central role in

the protests.

You have recently argued that the current protests in Lebanon and

elsewhere in the region seem to defy the impression that the brutal

suppression of civic protest in the Middle East has been successful.

Can tell us more about the protests that are going on at the moment

and to what extent they are challenging the current governments?


Let me paint a larger picture first. I think there is a broad sort of sense that –

post popular revolts of 2011 – the effort for change has been defeated; that

the Middle East is a bloody ugly mess and nothing has changed. And I think

that is fundamentally wrong. The Middle East is in transition.

Firstly, you might not like the Islamic State and various other forces that have

originated, but the fact is the Islamic State is an agent of change. It may not

be the change one wants regarding democracy,greater freedom etc, but it is a

fundamental challenge to the status quo. Secondly, where ever this goes, it

will take a long time. The status quo is no longer a sustainable paradigm.

What that means is that on the one hand, transition as an answer to protest,

anger and frustration, had been closed off and public space has vanished,

obviously resulting in more militant, more radical, more mobile responses.

The assumption then again was that some people had been cowed, either

because of the situation in their own countries, or because they look at the

situation in Syria, in Iraq or Yemen and feel they would rather have a degree

of security and stability, than the chaos that they see around them. However,

what we are seeing in certain groups in Iraq, and also to a lesser degree in

Egypt, is that this is not really the case.


When things get to a point where it is no longer sustainable, when the

garbage is piling up on the streets [like in Lebanon], suddenly the people

are back on the streets. Secondly, what you see – certainly in the case of

Lebanon and Iraq – is that these kind of protests cross ethnic and sectarian

boundaries. Everybody smells the same stuff in Beirut. So, that is what I think

the bigger picture is. In a sense, one could argue that the Islamic State on

one extreme and peaceful protest in Beirut, Bagdad or Basra on the other

extreme, are flipsides of the same coin, depending on what margins and

public space there is. The fundamental point it is that the Middle East is in

transition.

So, are you arguing that the authoritarian regimes are currently

breaking up and that there is space for different kinds of contestation

or are saying that in a way we have overlooked the potential that

there was before?


I am saying a bit of both. There is a tendency that people have written off

peaceful protest. But, I think it is more that – on a whole range of different

levels, from country to country, but also differing from sub-region to sub-

region – the traditional paradigm is breaking down. Whether that is a

government which cannot get its waste management together or whether

it is a government that cannot provide electricity or water, or it is a social

contract, like in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, which is frayed because of the

economics of it, this paradigm is on the defensive. You have a mix of

popular responses to that, exploiting whatever opportunities or margins

there are. For example in Lebanon, there is now a margin to take to the

streets. In Iraq, you have both that margin, but also many Sunni are

opting for the Islamic State, not because they necessarily like their

particular interpretation of Shari’ah, but because they are not being

offered an alternative. This is the least of the bad alternatives that there

are. The responses like the Egyptian one, call it counter-revolution or

whatever, are also failing. So, that is the magnet field in which they are

operating in.

In a way, you are saying that however harsh the responses might

currently be, the underlying critique of the current governments

or regimes is so strong that it reemerges in specific moments again

and again, is that right?


Yes, or to phrase is differently: The simple return to the status quo is no

longer an option. No matter how defensive the various regimes are, it could

very well prove to be Saudi Arabia’s Vietnam. And the final chapter of the

Lebanese stories is by far not written. What you essentially have is a paradigm

of authoritarian rule and a paradigm of exclusionary rule, rather than

inclusionary rule of a very passive public, and a growing inability to produce

the kind of drive to keep a social contract which is no longer sustainable, to

deliver the minimum of public services and goods. This has over the last four

years produced a situation which is fluid and in which the push for change

occurs in multiple ways depending on opportunities, circumstances etc. These

many ways are unpredictable in the same way as we cannot predict a popular

revolt.



Is it possible to see a similar pattern in these different countries

that this exclusionary kind of politics and the failure to provide public

services triggers popular critique of the governments?


It differs from country to country. Obviously, Egypt is not supplying the public

services and goods, neither is Iraq, Syria, Lebanon; Jordan is struggling, but it

also has the refugee influx. In the Gulf, certainly in Kuwait, in Saudi Arabia, in

the UA the social contract, in terms of maintaining of the social welfare state is

fraying: the introduction of taxes, charges for services etc. Saudi Arabia is

definitely exclusionary in terms of its minorities. While the UA is at a cultural

level very inclusive, you have Synagogues, Hindu Temples, you have churches

etc. and yet, the social contract is fraying. There is a lot of grumbling. While

there is on the one hand pride in the military performance, on the other,

conscription is only a year old and now there are soldiers dying in a war that

was not part of the bargain. There are democratic issues that play a role. In

Kuwait, one of the shocks of the last mosque bombing was that the Bidoon

were very heavily involved. So, it is not that one glove fits all. It differs from

country to country. But, the underlying more general issues are sort of the

same even if the way they are articulated and the way they emerge in

different countries may be different.

Would you say that the Arab Spring, as we call it, had a triggering

effect on the general questioning of the status quo or are there

broader underlying issues?


I think it is broader than that. In 2001 and 2002, the King in Saudi Arabia

at the time had already started tinkering with the welfare state. Saudi Arabia

is almost unique in this. If you look at the per capita income, at the GDP per

capita income, in Saudi Arabia: In 1985, it was 17,000 $. On the 11 September

2001, it was $ 6,700. This means it had dropped by more than 100% in an

oil-rich country. The Saudis were struggling. They were having two and three

jobs, if they could find jobs, trying to make ends meet. At the time of the self-

immolation of Bouazizi [2] in Tunisia in 2010, you had mass protest in Jeddah

(Saudi Arabia) over another mishandling of flooding issues. You had huge

clashes in Amman (Jordan) in which 250 people were injured during a soccer

match. This is November 2010. This was brewing and it all sort of came

together with the revolts.



And I think the argument you are making is that it is still brewing

today, that there is still a transition going on, is that right?

Absolutely. If we take a step back, whatever you think of George W. Bush,

there is actually one very wise thing that he said in 2001 after 9/11 that

many people have forgotten, and I am paraphrasing now, but he essentially

said, the United States or the West was equally guilty in terms of the 9/11

attacks because of its support for undemocratic regimes. That is where his

democracy initiative came from, which was totally mishandled. But, it was

the recognition that stability wasn’t working. So, in that period of time,

officials, analysts etc. were waiting for the Arab street to act, but the Arab

street never responded on their timetable. So, if you were an analyst in those

times saying it is bubbling, you were dismissed. But, fact is that these things

bubble and they can bubble for a long time and there may or may not be the

spark that brings them to explode, but that doesn’t mean it is not there.

Do you think that the current protests could increase so strongly that

there would be another great wave of contestation like the Arab Spring?

Or do you think people are more careful? I think you mention that in a

recent analysis of the current situation in Lebanon.


Algerians are also more careful now, because they still remember the war. I

don’t think you can predict it. First of all, it is too early. In other words, if

Lebanon succeeds, i.e. they force the government out or force change,

obviously people will take heart from this. But, if they don’t succeed, that will

be less encouraging. You could also argue – but this is pure speculation – that

the paradigm of brutal response to peaceful protest – in the form that you

have in Bahrain – is a model that works for a period of time, but look at Syria.

So, whether or not a regime may respond differently, because it looks at Syria

and doesn’t want to end up that way: the jury is out. So, I don’t want to predict

anything. But, what you can say is that the discontent is there. It comes to the

surface whenever there is an opportunity and something that sparks it. The

region is in change and the paradigm is shifting, without a moral judgment

whether it is going in the right or wrong direction. But, fundamentally, there

is no way back to status quo.



So, does this means that there is a potential that the governments

also change their strategies towards these kinds of protest?

First of all, there is also another level of change. The chances of Syria

ever becoming a nation-state again are minimal. I would also place no

bet on Iraq, neither on Yemen. So, that is a whole different dynamic we

have now. The last four years have shown that the willingness of certain

regimes to retain power at whatever price is quite remarkable, whether

that is the Saudis or Bashar [Al-Assad] or Ali Abdullah. It is a degree of

unprecedented willingness. Bahrain, is a success story in those terms. I

would say it is a failure, but they are managing to keep the lid on.

However, it is a question how long that will last. Syria is an obvious total

failure. So, there are no clear answers.

I think a figure which you recently cited, underlines quite well what

you have been explaining so far that the discontent and protest

continue to bubble. According to these figures from Democracy

Index, 807 anti-government protests were staged by militant

football fans and students in Egypt between October of last year

and June this year, despite the repressive regime of Abdel Fattah

Al Sisi.


That is true. But, you also had in Egypt is a popular revolt – miscalculated

in lots of different ways – which, however, succeeded in indirectly forcing

the resignation of the president. This lead to a lot of aspirations and

expectations, which, however, were dashed in the following. So, while

you have some young people that have become apathetic, disillusioned,

grown-in-age etc, there is a whole segment of the youth that hasn’t given

up.


Egypt draws on almost a century of tradition and history [of a student

movement]. In other words, the traditional understanding of the 1919

revolution is that it was the students who staged their revolt that lead to

independence in 1922. What that establishes is that students have played

a very important role throughout various periods of history in Egypt. And if

you look at who those students were in 1919, they were football fans. The

place where they met, what was their breeding ground, was the founding

of [the football club] Al Ahly SC under the auspices of the Wafd Party. If

you fast forward to around the 1970s, where the Brotherhood had gone

through basically 25 years of oppression until Sadat started to use them

against the Left, the Brotherhood was almost withered away and it was the

student movement that blew new life into it. The older generation, especially

the spiritual guides, engaged with the students travelling the country

crisscross.


Today, you see the same thing happening. The backbone of the student

movement are football fans, who are also students, who are pushing,

radicalizing. They are sort of caught between the repression which they

are dealing with and not really wanting to cross the line towards the

jihadists. Some of them are like one young man who I spent some time

with. He is a 22 year-old man, very smart, very knowledgeable. He is a

member of the Brotherhood. He is from either of the student groups. He is

steeped in Islamic history, in the history of the student movement and the

history of football fans in Egypt. He moves around Cairo in a protective

envelop, because he has been sentenced twice in absentia; once to life in

prison. That is what we are talking about. So, in that sense, there is this

special history and tradition in Egypt.

Is there an awareness of this history of the centrality of students

and football in transformation and revolution among students and

football fans today?


Yes, this young man was not the only one I spent time with. They do have

that history. There is also an awareness of this in the leadership. Whether

all football fans know that, I would question that. The student movement

partly does. There is also a whole apathetic community.



It is possible to locate the football fan groups in dichotomies of right-

left, religious-secular, or does football totally conflate these

differences?


All grass-roots movements, certainly those that lead to public protests

and even more those that get to the point that there is a change in leader,

face the problem of how to then make the transition into more classic

politics. They are not prepared for that. But on top of that, the militant

football fans, the politicized football fans, very deliberately define themselves

as apolitical. It is very deliberate, very strategic. This has to do with the fact

that if they define themselves as political, they become much more vulnerable.

Also, they transcend or reach a common denominator, which is a passion for

the sport, for the club and a very specific power analysis of the sport, in which

the management relies on the regime and the players are mercenaries who

are only there for the money. So, fans – particularly militant fans – are the

only really true supporters of the game, which gives some sort of rights, e.g.

the right to the stadium, right to the space, and a dislike of authority in

particular. Once you transcend those parameters, the views run the gamut

from right to left. So, that of course, as a group if you get into that, you will

fall apart. Which is also why, in the case of summer of 2013 you saw football

fans on all squares and sites. On the other hand, Islamists among them are a

strong group. I am not saying they are a majority, but they are very

prominent group in what is a conservative society.

That is a very interesting point. So, you are saying that the militant,

the most politicized, football fans actually deliberately see themselves as

apolitical


Absolutely. If we think back to the 24 January 2011, two major groups in Cairo issued

almost identical statements on facebook, which were reasonably quoted.

This was the day before Police Day, the first mass-protest. The statement said,

‘We are not part of this. We are not involved in politics. However, individual

members are free to join to do what they want’. Privately, the word was, ‘Look,

this is what we have been preparing for, go for it’. But, the official statement

was, ‘We are not part of this and what our members do is their personal

business’.



What I am wondering is whether it would be right to say that

nevertheless these fan groups help frame discontent in political

terms, or would that be wrong?


No, I wouldn’t articulate it in that way. They are more of a reflection of

discontent. Firstly, because of the centrality of football in Egyptian life.

Secondly, because there were not many ways in which you could express

yourself. If we look at the two decades before that, there were big

demonstrations on Palestine, but much of that was actually just as much

about Palestine as it was about Egypt. Besides this, they have a very

emotional value, a very strong bond to the game and the club, and a very

specific analysis of the power structures and also a very clearly defined way

of expressing their support in the stadium, which automatically brought

them in conflict with the security forces of the regime. That is what made

them popular. They derived that popularity from the degree of passion for

a club that millions of others supported as well as from the fact that they

were the only group – leaving the Bedouin aside – the only urban group that

consistently and on a regular basis physically confronted the regime on issues

that as a matter of principle a lot of people agree on. I think it is more that

than that they were framing or shaping anything.

In that sense, they were in opposition to the state through the position

they were in and it triggered from there, rather than that they had a

certain politically framed position towards the state or regime.


Exactly. The security forces were a problem for everybody. They were corrupt,

brutal, and that on a daily basis in popular neighbourhoods. So, for a lot of the

less educated, unemployed, here there was this group that was battling it out

and standing its ground in the stadium and they too were football fans. This

was the release valve. For a lot of these people, it was not so much about the

state etc. It was about the security forces.

Is this limited to Ultras or does it go beyond just them? Obviously, it

triggered something…


No, this is specific to the Ultras. I would argue – and you can see that from

what people tweeted on Tahrir Square – that the Ultras played a very key role

in breaking what people called the ‘barrier of fear’. For example, the fact the

Ultras were there standing their ground, people who left felt bad, and other

people stayed because they thought, ‘if the Ultras stay why should we be

running’. So, there were lots of different dynamics. They also played a role in

the build-up, in the marches towards Tahrir. On the 25th, the Ultras played a

great role in breaking down those barriers. They made use of their experience.

They were fearless. They were willing to put their lives on the line.

Does this fearlessness have something to do with them as football fans?

Is there something characteristic about being a football fan or

belonging to club that brings this with it?


I think it has to do with the tribal nature, the real emotional depth of the bond

to the club. I mean, football is an aggressive sport. It is about conquering the

other half of the field. You have groups in Europe where one of the problems is

that these militant football fan groups make appointments somewhere in the

woods to ‘fight it out’. If you assume that this is just lower class youth, you are

wrong. They are groups of doctors, professors, lawyers who fight it out with each

other. So, there is a lot of identity politics involved. If you put sports into popular

culture, football is the most popular expression of popular culture. There is

nothing that competes with it: no other sport, not arts, painting, theatre,

literature etc. Roughly 5% of the world’s population is in one way or another

professionally involved in football.

In this context, where something is bubbling, such emotional attachment

to a club can have a mobilizing effect…


Sure. Again if we look at Egypt, for the greater part of the past four year stadia

have been closed. There are moves to criminalize them, as it has been in

Turkey too, by the way. Two things have happened: Groups have emerged that define themselves as Ultras and are formed by football fans, but are no longer associated with the club and no longer describe themselves as apolitical, but

define themselves as explicitly political. That is one development and on the

other hand, although the number is still small to my knowledge, there are

people who cross the line and join the jihadists.



It looks as if in places in which direct open political critique is

suppressed very harshly, sport and football become spaces where

this discontent erupts in certain moments, as you said like in

confrontation with the security forces.


It depends on the circumstances, if the stadia get closed or the games

suspended it gets more difficult. I think a better way of approaching it –

and that sets the Middle East and Africa apart from other places in the world

– that football particularly has played an important role in the development

of the region, consistently for more than a century. What I mean with that